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Who is making money behind the domestic hot trend of stablecoins?

With the successful listing of Circle, the leader in the compliant stablecoin sector, a significant demonstration effect has emerged, leading to widespread attention on stablecoins domestically. Various stablecoin payment conferences are being frequently held, companies are organizing learning activities, and the cryptocurrency community is actively discussing, with experts engaging in in-depth debates.

Behind the excitement, who is actually making money?#

In fact, the development of stablecoins can be divided into three stages, each with different participants able to profit.

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Stage One: Applying for Licenses.#

Compliance is the top priority, and many companies are actively applying for licenses in Hong Kong. The main challenge of the Hong Kong regulatory framework is its strictness, with numerous requirements that many companies are unclear about how to fully meet. At this time, law firms quickly intervene to provide legal consulting services to companies applying for licenses, assisting them in submitting materials and communicating with regulatory agencies. Therefore, in this stage, law firms are the first to gain profits.

Stage Two: Building Technology.#

Compliance and technology development can proceed simultaneously, with many companies advancing both license applications and technical system construction so that they can launch stablecoins immediately after obtaining licenses to seize market opportunities. If they wait until the license is obtained to start the project, they will miss critical timing, leading to delays. Developing a stablecoin payment system is quite complex, involving compliance services, asset management, token issuance, liquidity management, security services, and more. Specific requirements include KYB, KYT, AML, order management, address management, clearing and settlement, deposit and withdrawal processing, contract auditing, on-chain security, etc. However, traditional Web2 companies often lack blockchain development experience and talent reserves, so they need to collaborate with Web3 technology service providers. As a result, in this stage, many crypto technology service providers begin to attract customers and generate direct revenue.

Stage Three: Channel Promotion.#

Once licenses are obtained and technical preparations are completed, companies can officially start their business. However, most enterprises are still in the first two stages, with the third stage at most in preliminary discussions. But when the business starts, they will face fierce competition in the "Battle of the Hundred Coins." For stablecoins, liquidity is crucial. Various stablecoins need to find suitable business scenarios to expand adoption. Therefore, channel promotion is extremely important, and partnerships with high-traffic channels are essential. Taking Circle as an example, the rapid rise of USDC is largely attributed to Coinbase's strong support, providing liquidity and brand endorsement. This is a clear development path, and stablecoin participants in Hong Kong also need to bind with various channels to seize market share. In this "Battle of the Hundred Coins" stage, the most profitable are naturally various channels, including exchanges, e-commerce platforms, cross-border trade companies, etc.

After going through the above three stages, only the stablecoins that stand out can achieve profitability. Ultimately, a stablecoin will become the leader in Hong Kong or the Chinese-speaking region, squeezing out competitors through a siphoning effect and occupying a large market share. Once market share is solidified, issuers will naturally enhance profitability. Referring to the domestic ride-hailing wars, shared bike wars, and food delivery wars, they all follow a similar path: after initial chaos, the winners achieve a winner-takes-all scenario; after a subsidy war, companies need to recuperate, reduce subsidies, and raise prices to become profitable. At this time, the profit potential is enormous, and stablecoin issuers profit from their large asset scales. Besides the project parties, ordinary users can also benefit directly: when new stablecoin forces compete for market and liquidity through subsidies, retail investors can arbitrage from it. In summary, the stablecoin boom can be described as "the bigger the water, the bigger the fish," and participants should seize the opportunity to share the dividends.

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